Tap here to turn on desktop notifications to get the news sent straight to you. Robert Legvold is a Marshall D Shulman Professor Russian foreign policy decision making at the Columbia University political science department.
He is one of the world’s leading experts on the foreign policy of post-Soviet states, and a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs magazine. You have described Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine as event-driven. Do you believe that Putin’s foreign policy decisions in general are founded on a grand strategy or are they tactical reactive responses to events on the ground? Robert Legvold: It is important to note that just because Russian behavior is based on strategic calculations, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Russia’s responses were based on rational strategy.
Russian behavior today is without strategy and effectively tactically driven. Critics of the Obama administration see the US, NATO and Germany as being outmaneuvered at a tactical level. I recently wrote an article for the Washington Post arguing that Russia is pursuing a frozen conflict strategy in Ukraine and a number of analysts I have spoken agree with this assessment. Do you think the Donbas region will end up like Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh? What do you think is Putin’s end game in Ukraine?
Robert Legvold: As I mentioned earlier, Putin’s actions in Ukraine are tactical. I think the end game is evolving into a frozen conflict but not because it was Putin’s intent. At this point, it might be the best-case scenario. From my point of view, a frozen conflict is a reality. That is what is happening in Ukraine.
The West was opposed to this idea a year ago but now they might see it as the best case. Though I think the ultimate end game is a frozen conflict, there are other scenarios that should be considered. If Putin becomes antsy, and sees US and NATO posturing as threatening as he says it is, then any instability in Central Europe, or in Belarus or Moldova has the basis of conflict. Many analysts have speculated that Russia’s Syria and Ukraine strategies have become closely intertwined. One theory is that the West will trade Donbas for Russian cooperation against ISIS. How do you regard these theories? Robert Legvold: This was broached in Novaya Gazeta recently when Russia was increasing its military involvement in Syria.
