Russian Foreign Policy Research and analysis regarding all aspects of Russia’s foreign policy. Russia’s foreign policy has in recent years become more assertive than it had been in the first two decades since independence. The Kremlin surprised many with russian foreign policy ukraine 2008 war in Georgia, its 2014 seizure of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine, and its 2015 deployment of forces in the Syrian civil war. First name This field is required.

Last name This field is required. Kiev and the West are winning. Now is not the time to let Moscow off the hook. Whatever the larger goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s armed intervention in Syria, it has succeeded in distracting the world’s attention from his ongoing aggression in eastern Ukraine. Putin’s rhetorical redirection is not surprising. The Kremlin’s war in Ukraine is turning into a quagmire. Militarily, it is a stalemate — which, given the vast imbalance between Russian and Ukrainian capabilities, amounts to a Ukrainian victory.

Time is, therefore, on the side of Ukraine and the West. Given Ukraine’s strengthened military and the threat of further sanctions, Putin will be unable to escalate the confrontation. Much of Putin’s authority at home rests on his ability to deliver steadily improving living standards as the upside of his authoritarian rule. But Russians of all income classes are tightening their belts. The sanctions have already cost the Russian economy 9 percent of GDP, according to the IMF. Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in February 2014, the ruble has lost 50 percent of its value. Meanwhile, social and economic problems in the Russian-occupied Donbass enclave are mounting.

Many of the territory’s economic links with Ukraine have been disrupted. Its GDP has contracted by over 80 percent. Much of its infrastructure and its banking and administrative systems are in ruins. Large swaths of the territory suffer from shortages of gas, water, and electricity.